BUMPER CROP
Of the broadcast lineups, ABC is the most aggressive, CBS and Fox are the safest, NBC has improved, and The CW is on the right track

By John Consoli

Media buyers traditionally have taken a hypercritical view of the broadcast upfront ritual, quibbling about matters trivial (everything from the length of the networks’ presentations to the shrimp cocktail at the after-parties) and material (the quality of the shows on offer).

But in a year when the economy is troubled and advertisers are looking for smarter investments, buyers seemed to embrace their broadcast partners, showing an affinity for the networks that hasn’t been apparent in nearly a decade.

Clearly, broadcasters furthered their own cause by streamlining their programming presentations—with The CW setting what had to be an upfront record, rolling out its clips and supporting data in about 45 minutes. More importantly, however, buyers were really upbeat about the overall quality of the new shows. Most said they had trouble recalling anything that really stood out as a likely failure…and this is usually a tough audience to please.

Overall impressions were that ABC remains the network that’s most willing to roll the dice, offering 11 new scripted shows (eight for the fall), including an all-new comedy night on Wednesdays from 8-10 p.m.

Buyers felt NBC could finally get itself back into the prime-time ratings game with a couple of dramas (Mercy and Parenthood) and sitcoms (Community and 100 Questions) looking like they might draw steady audiences. Unlike the gimmicky retreads NBC trotted out in recent years (Bionic Woman and Knight Rider, for example), or uncategorizable head-scratchers like Crusoe, the new shows are distinguished by strong characters and better writing and production, buyers said.

CBS had only a few holes to fill and once again put together a smart schedule, adding a new sitcom to its Monday night comedy block, Accidentally on Purpose, and an NCIS spinoff, NCIS: Los Angeles, leading out of the original. It added two more new dramas for fall that buyers were not as high on (Three Rivers and The Good Wife). In addition to its scripted projects, CBS also has the most talked-about new reality series in midseason, Undercover Boss.



Fox played things the safest, with its biggest move being to offer popular summer reality show So You Think You Can Dance in a two-night slot for fall. Buyers liked this move because they consider it family entertainment and a safe buy for their clients.

And The CW dropped its poorly performing ethnic sitcoms (see related story on page AM 8) and more male-skewing shows, choosing instead to offer younger-female targeted shows five nights a week. The move was well received by the agency community.

Buyers were glad to see more sitcoms on the schedules, a genre that the broadcast networks seemed to have all but abandoned in recent years. But Steve Sternberg, executive vp for audience analysis at Magna Global USA, said viewers are actually watching more TV comedies than ever. Most of them, however, are former or current broadcast hits that now run in syndication.

While there was a good mix of the standard crime, medical and law dramas, each network was bent on trying some sci-fi, a genre that of late has not performed well for broadcasters. In total, there are seven new sci-fi-themed shows being offered.

But the biggest wild card of all the network moves is the 10 p.m. hour. With NBC airing The Jay Leno Show five nights a week in the time slot, ABC and CBS are left to battle it out for viewers looking for scripted drama.



Following is a network-by-network recap of the new fall schedule in alphabetical order:

ABC
ABC Entertainment president Steve McPherson has always been one to push the envelope when it comes to producing scripted programming, and this year is no exception. After having produced the most scripted pilots of any network, ABC picked 11 to put on the air next season, eight of which will debut in the fall. Only three pilots were produced by ABC Studios, a clear indication that McPherson is putting his weight behind the shows he thinks have the best chance for success, rather than merely favoring his own studio system.

Media buyers singled out the sci-fi drama Flash Forward and the single-camera comedy Modern Family as having the potential to draw big audiences. Lisa Quan, an audience analyst at Magna Global USA, calls Modern Family “one of the best comedy pilots we’ve seen in years.”

Adds Charlie Rutman, former CEO of MPG North America: “If ABC can produce 21 more episodes as funny as that pilot, it will have a breakout hit.”

“In times like this, it’s easy to make moves to indiscriminately save money,” McPherson explains, adding that instead his “top priority [is] to create more scripted hits.”
While ABC is standing pat on Sunday night, one of its strongest among the adults 18-49 demo, it is totally revamping its Wednesday lineup, adding four back-to-back comedy half hours to the schedule, followed by new dramedy Eastwick.

While the pundits agree that the chances of an entirely new sitcom block succeeding is a long shot, all four comedies drew laughs from media buyers during the network’s upfront presentation. And all four feature recognizable actors from past successful comedies. Hank stars Kelsey Grammer, while The Middle stars Patricia Heaton; Cougar Town stars Courteney Cox, while the ensemble comedy Modern Family includes Ed O’Neill. Eastwick, based on the 1987 theatrical The Witches of Eastwick and the best-selling novel by John Updike, might be a stretch as a series, but it could fit leading out of the sitcoms. One of its stars, Rebecca Romijn, enjoys a following that spans the movies (X-Men) as well as TV (Ugly Betty).

In his attempt to strengthen Thursday’s delivery of adults 18-49––thanks to the need of movie studios to open their films with big box office returns, the night boasts some of the priciest inventory on television––McPherson is leading off with Flash Forward into the solid 18-49 performer Grey’s Anatomy. Leading out of Grey’s is its sophomore spinoff, Private Practice. Originally developed at HBO, the mysterious, quasi-apocalyptic Flash Forward (read: similar to Lost) replaces Ugly Betty, which lost a step in its third season and was shuttled over to Fridays at 9 p.m.

But no schedule is complete without some nonscripted programming. While he already has a regular season reality hit in Dancing With the Stars, McPherson is trying to create another, this time with Shark Tank, a Mark Burnett production, in which budding entrepreneurs try to convince millionaires to invest in their businesses. Shark Tank will premiere this summer before appearing on the fall schedule. McPherson says he has been trying to do a deal with Burnett since before Survivor.




CBS
As has been the case for the last several seasons, CBS’ schedule needed the least amount of tweaking because it has the most stable line-up, and because many of the network’s veteran procedural dramas, though aging, actually showed ratings increases this past season. CBS entertainment president Nina Tassler pointed out at her upfront presentation that 18 CBS shows registered ratings increases this past season, and nine shows won their time periods in the 18-49 demo.

CBS is playing it quite safely with its new fall lineup. New sitcom Accidentally on Purpose moves into the Monday sitcom block, which is the highest rated on television. On Tuesday, the network is leading new spinoff drama NCIS: Los Angeles out of NCIS—a low-risk gamble if there ever was one.

The network’s most aggressive gambit is switching the sole breakout hit of the 2008-09, The Mentalist, from its lead-out of NCIS on Tuesday at 9 p.m. to Thursday at 10 p.m., leading out of CSI: Crime Scene Investigations. It’s a calculated risk. For one, CBS needed The Mentalist’s old time period to air NCIS: Los Angeles. And moving The Mentalist, which averaged 16.9 million viewers last season, should help stir up an even larger audience on the biggest night of the week, particularly since CSI has shown some audience slippage since star William Petersen left the show this past season (even though it’s still strong in its delivery of adults 18-49).

Two other new CBS dramas, The Good Wife and Three Rivers, are both widely expected to struggle for viewers. But CBS executives are confident that the stars of those shows—Julianna Margulies as a lawyer in The Good Wife and Alex O’Loughlin as a surgeon in Three Rivers—will keep those who sample in the early weeks coming back for more.

As far as midseason goes, buyers gave The Bridge, a drama about an aggressive beat cop who battles corruption within the department, a shot at success. But perhaps the most talked-about show of the upfronts (other than ABC’s Modern Family), was the CBS midseason reality show, Undercover Boss. The show follows high-echelon corporate executives who anonymously fill low-level jobs in their companies, working with the rank and file to see how their businesses are actually run.

“All the CBS shows have a chance because their schedule is so stable and each new show has a solid lead-in,” notes Rutman.




Fox
Because its entertainment programming    loses a sizable portion of the month of October to postseason Major League Baseball telecasts, Fox usually doesn’t offer many new shows for airing in the fourth quarter. This year was no different. While Fox is moving some of its returning shows to different nights, the network is only rolling out two new scripted shows in the fall, unless you count Glee, which had a one-episode preview two weeks ago.

Fox’s biggest move, and the one buyers seemed happy about, was putting its successful summer reality show, So You Think You Can Dance, on Tuesday and Wednesday nights this fall. The second half of the two-hour Tuesday telecast will compete head-to-head with the results show for ABC hit Dancing With the Stars, making it a bit of a ratings risk. But buyers like the move because it offers a solid block of family-friendly entertainment that appeals to many advertisers. It could even put a small dent into Dancing With the Stars’ ratings, if younger viewers choose to watch one dancing show rather than both.

Though Fox entertainment president Kevin Reilly certainly believes that, he downplays the competitive threat toward either show from the other.

Reilly also believes that the Wednesday SYTYCD results show will be the perfect lead-in for the network’s new younger-skewing dramedy, Glee. In fact, Reilly’s goal in putting the fall schedule together was to pair shows at 8 p.m. that would help draw audiences to the 9 p.m. shows. For example, Fox’s Monday 8 p.m. hit House leads into second-year drama Lie to Me. Three nights later, veteran performer Bones hands off to sophomore supernatural drama Fringe.

Shari Ann Brill, senior vp and director of programming for media agency Carat, believes Glee stands a good chance to carve out a niche for itself on Wednesdays. “Fame came out of nowhere and had a pretty good run several years ago, so this type of show could catch on,” she explains.

With The CW not renewing Everybody Hates Chris and The Game, Fox remains the only broadcast network to incorporate shows featuring all African-American casts this fall. The network’s got two of them in prime time: new family sitcom Brothers, starring former NFL star Michael Strahan, and The Cleveland Show, which joins the Sunday animation block. And Fox is adding a comedic jolt to its late night schedule with The Wanda Sykes Show, which premieres Saturday, Nov. 7, in the 11 p.m.-midnight time slot.

Brothers faces a tough battle on Fridays, however, leading off the night into veteran underperforming sitcom ‘Til Death and ratings-challenged drama Dollhouse. While most media buyers were enthused about the rest of the Fox schedule, they were not impressed with Friday—but to be fair, the same could be said for all networks except, perhaps, CBS.

Reilly says that renewing Dollhouse was a vote of confidence in creator Joss Whedon, but several buyers believe Fox hedged its bets. Renewing Dollhouse was seen as a means to curry favor with Whedon, on the off chance he creates another phenomenon like Buffy, the Vampire Slayer, which brought the WB Network its first taste of success in 1997 and ran for seven seasons.

Fox’s midseason shows are right in its traditional wheelhouse. The irreverent sitcom Sons of Tucson has drawn comparisons to Malcolm in the Middle, while the sci-fi drama Past Life shares some DNA with Fringe in that it deals with supernatural sleuthing. Of particular interest is Human Target, a drama that many buyers said could become the next 24, except that it’s far more tongue-in-cheek and campy.




NBC
NBC has not had a ratings hit in years. Heroes had looked promising two seasons ago but fizzled out when the writers’ strike sucked away all its momentum. And while The Office and 30 Rock are hailed by the critics, their ratings are a far cry from the days of Seinfeld and Friends, when NBC’s must-see TV lineup made it the only game in town on Thursdays.

This year, buyers left the NBC presentation generally buoyed by what they saw. While they liked midseason hospital drama Mercy better, there was also a feeling that the similarly themed Trauma could draw an audience this fall. And Ron Howard’s Parenthood had buyers drawing comparisons to ABC’s successful family drama Brothers & Sisters.

NBC also has two strong sitcom contenders on its hands. Community, in which Chevy Chase has a significant role but is not the star, drew lots of laughs during the presentation. And with James Burrows directing, the ensemble comedy 100 Questions shares some genetic material with Friends.

Buyers did wonder why NBC chose to save 100 Questions for midseason, when it will air on Tuesday, following a 90-minute The Biggest Loser. It’s possible that the network isn’t sold on sophomore sitcom Parks and Recreation and is planning to use 100 Questions if the Amy Poehler vehicle falters.

Buyers also thought Mercy should be paired on the same night with Trauma rather than holding it for midseason. The flow from Heroes into Trauma, and from Parenthood into Law & Order: SVU doesn’t appear to be optimal. That said, some buyers did acknowledge that in these time-shifting times, there is some evidence that audience flow is no longer as important as it once was, and that viewers come to networks to watch specific shows. By that logic, NBC’s schedule could hold up.

The one show buyers didn’t like was Day One, a midseason drama about a group of survivors who work to rebuild society after a global catastrophe. Many likened it to the failed Jericho on CBS two years ago—they even question whether the number of sci-fi serialized dramas (ABC has Flash Forward and Lost, and NBC has Heroes) have any legs.

Most media buyers are upbeat right now about the biggest move of this coming season, The Jay Leno Show. Airing five nights a week at 10 p.m., the talk show offers a safe haven for viewers, and NBC is working diligently to offer advertisers various ways to embed their products in the show. (How those aggressive integrations will play with audiences will depend on their execution.)

Because the program is produced live to tape the same day, Leno can attract a more relevant stable of guests, actors and newsmakers who are tied into the current events of the day. That sort of immediacy may help the show draw a different niche each night while retaining a constant core audience. But if Leno’s prime-time program mimics the old Tonight Show format, it could lose its appeal rather quickly.

Leno aside, buyers believe NBC still relies on far too much reality programming, particularly in midseason. That asymmetry led The CW’s entertainment president Dawn Ostroff to quip that her five-night network has the same number of hours of scripted programming as seven-night net NBC.




The CW
Not that Ostroff has had that much to laugh about the last season. The CW’s total viewer numbers and 18-49 ratings took a big hit this past season. But don’t count The CW out just yet. The network was up double digits in its core audience, women 18-34. And for the first time, the network is streamlining its content to focus on that core demo across its Monday-through-Friday grid.

In its first few seasons since The WB and UPN merged to form The CW, the network tried to attract a broader audience, putting on some older skewing shows and trying to reach more men. Based on the aforementioned ratings delivery this past season, that didn’t pay off.
Ostroff believes this more laser-focused strategy will offer advertisers a solid core of this hard-to-reach demo. (Any men and older women that get pulled into the net are pure gravy.)

The network’s median age is 33, 10 years younger than any other broadcast network. And this past season, its prime-time ratings among women 18-34 were up 34 percent. “That’s a desirable audience for many advertisers,” Ostroff told the upfront audience, adding that the exposure of the network’s shows “goes beyond the Nielsen ratings.”

The network shot only six pilots and picked up four, notes Ostroff, who adds that the decision to leave out the other two was very difficult. In past years, shooting so few pilots might be a dangerous road to follow, but it’s a strategy that has found great success on cable channels like TNT and USA Network. This year, the four new shows The CW picked up all look like they could stick, which in turn could bring some much-needed stability to the network’s prime-time schedule.

In its lightning quick 45-minute presentation, The CW presented a schedule with good flow from show to show and night to night. New drama Melrose Place should fit seamlessly out of 90210 on Tuesday. New drama The Beautiful Life, the Ashton Kutcher-produced show about the lives of young models, offers a dramatized take on what’s covered in reality competition America’s Next Top Model. And new drama The Vampire Diaries, which many buyers said could be the next Buffy, the Vampire Slayer-type hit, should provide a solid lead-in for veteran drama Supernatural. Ostroff points out that, contrary to conventional wisdom, more women tend to view sci-fi or fantasy dramas with male stars than men do.

As with many of the other networks, buyers particularly liked the show The CW is holding back for midseason, the family drama Parental Discretion Advised, which they likened to longtime WB hit The Gilmore Girls.

Ostroff laments that The CW has no sitcoms on its schedule, but she points out that viewers don’t really come to the network for comedy. “We have had a lot of disappointment with comedies,” she says. “We are very proud of Everybody Hates Chris, but audiences just didn’t embrace it.”



As both sides of the negotiating table try to make the other blink in the upfront marketplace—the networks offering up their best programming in years, but media buyers expecting a drop in ad rates for prime-time shows—those of us observing this bizarre mating ritual settle in for a long wait. All the better, since it gives us time to examine the broadcast networks’ content lineups just that much more carefully. The good news is, we generally concur with the network executives’ belief that their fall schedules reflect a renewed commitment to delivering broad entertainment to U.S. audiences. (It doesn’t hurt that the development season was unhampered by a writers’ strike.) Even better, buyers also agree that they like what they see, as John Consoli reports in our main story, starting on the next page. It’s just that buyers won’t pay any premiums for the shows since their clients are pressing to contain costs in this still-unsteady economy.

It’s safe to say the biggest gamble taken by any network this fall is NBC’s stripping of The Jay Leno Show at 10 p.m. weeknights. In the unlikely chance the show simply collapses and needs to be replaced, NBC will face a Normandy-invasion-like task to fill five prime-time hours. If it works well, the network will have saved millions of production dollars. Our own Programming Insider Marc Berman (who also pens the Mr. Television column in Mediaweek) points out those shows with the best chances of besting NBC’s 10 o’clock move, while he also walks through the best prime-time show matchups elsewhere during the week (save Saturday, which has been all but abandoned by all the networks).

Look also for our analysis of the Spanish-language networks’ program plans and upbeat ad strategies for the 2009-10 season, as well as an examination on why Fox remains the only broadcast network serving up programming that features African-American casts.