The Perfect Storm Part II

April 7, 2008

continued from:
The Perfect Storm Part I

"TNT will continue to be the home for drama, TBS and Adult Swim [on late night Cartoon Network] the home for edgy comedy, and Cartoon Network the home for kids," Levy says. For adult viewers, however, Levy notes, "Prime time is no longer just 8 to 11, it's really 9 to 12:30 a.m."

            Adult Swim, Cartoon Network's late night block, was the No. 1 network among adults 18-34 and men 18-34 in the first quarter. "HUT levels among our 18-49 demo grow dramatically between those times," Levy says. "With dual income households getting to the TV later, we now have original programming starting at 10 or 11 p.m."

            NBC Universal's Steve Mandala, executive vp/cable entertainment sales Cable Network Guide 2008 & marketing, concurs. "We're pretty excited about how cable will do," he begins. Citing the ton of ink and hoopla surrounding Bravo's just-completed Project Runway and the growing cult like following for Top Chef and Millionaire Matchmaker, Mandala touts that Bravo "has now moved into the top 20 and has the greatest buzz of any TV network, and one of the most affluent audiences."

            Still, Mandala says, he's a believer in "macros," and the following make up his current macro mantra: 1. The scatter market is very healthy. 2. The top 30 cable networks are up 13 percent and the top 4 broadcast networks are down about 15 percent. 3. Audiences, in general, continue to embrace original programming, including original "reality" shows that are created fresh, not repackaged from something that aired elsewhere.

            In the end, however, powerful cable ad sales execs like Turner's Levy insist on an "It's all TV" viewpoint. "In today's world, it's about buying time on TV, not broadcast or cable, but across all television," he explains. "Buyers/planners need one overall television plan/budget." Especially at a time when broadcast audiences are getting smaller.

            How much longer can advertisers pay more and get less? he asks.

            Some top agency gurus agree. Donna Speciale, president/investment & activation at MediaVest USA, speaking at the recent ANA TV & Everything Video Forum, openly disagreed with NBC Universal network sales president Marianne Gambelli, who insisted broadcast's old supply-and-demand model (higher costs for less) still applies.

            "Current business models must change," Speciale retorted. "Clients won't pay increases for viewer losses."

The Perfect Storm continued:
The Perfect Storm Part I
The Perfect Storm Part II
The Perfect Storm Part III
The Perfect Storm Part IV
C3: Metric for the Market